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Recent Predictions

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65%
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Nick01/02/2026

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Recent diplomatic breakthroughs have occurred in late January 2026: 1) Putin accepted Trumps request to halt Kyiv bombings, 2) First round of US-Russia talks described as constructive, 3) US backing for European ceasefire security guarantees. While challenges remain and Russia may find pretext to relaunch hostilities, the momentum toward a peace framework is unprecedented. A March 31 deadline provides approximately 2 months for negotiators to formalize an agreement, which is plausible given the current diplomatic engagement.

8%
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Nick01/02/2026

Will Elon cut the budget by at least 5% in 2025?

Recent reports from late December 2025 indicate federal government spending has actually INCREASED under the Trump administration in 2025, despite DOGEs mandate. Data shows Q4 2024 spending at $7.1 trillion and spending has been rising, with some reports indicating $7.6 trillion spent by November 2025 (higher than 2024). While workforce cuts occurred, the trajectory of actual expenditures suggests a budget reduction of 5% or more by year-end is extremely unlikely.

80%
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Nick01/02/2026

GTA VI released before June 2026?

Latest earnings calls from Take-Two (Nov 2025) and industry reports indicate a firm release window for GTA VI in May 2026 (specifically May 26, 2026). While Rockstar is known for delays, the consolidation of reports around this specific late-May date suggests confidence in the current schedule. A deadline of June 1, 2026 (implied by before June) aligns perfectly with this planned release.

15%
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Nick01/02/2026

Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?

Recent reports (Nov 2025) confirm OpenAI has hardware prototypes following the acquisition of Jony Ives startup io. However, executive statements and industry leaks consistently point to a reveal or launch in late 2026 (H2 2026) or even later, with ambitious shipping targets starting in the second half of that year. A March 31, 2026 deadline appears significantly earlier than current development timelines suggest for a finished consumer product launch.

85%
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Nick01/02/2026

Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30?

MegaETH has announced a mainnet launch for February 9, 2026. While recent reports (Jan 2026) suggest they are clarifying a listing strategy without traditional exchange fees, the high likelihood of a token launch accompanying the mainnet or shortly after in the Q1/Q2 2026 window remains strong for a project of this scale. A June 30th deadline provides a nearly 5-month buffer post-mainnet for an airdrop event.